Tropical Storm Elsa is crossing over Cuba. Then what?


Tropical Storm Elsa is currently crossing over Cuba and is traveling northwest near 14mph. Chatham Co. may see impacts Wednesday afternoon/evening. Forecasts predict 1-3” of rain, gusty winds, and rip currents are possible.

BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 22

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021

500 PM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021

...ELSA MOVING OVER WESTERN CUBA WITH HEAVY RAINS...

...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS ON TUESDAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...22.7N 81.9W

ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SE OF HAVANA CUBA

ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF KEY WEST FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the Florida west coast

from Bonita Beach northward to the Aucilla River including Tampa

Bay.

The Tropical Storm Warning along the Florida west coast has been

extended northward and westward to the Ochlockonee River.

The Tropical Storm Watch for the Florida Keys north of Craig Key

and Florida Bay has been discontinued.

The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning

for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila and Sancti Spiritus.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River

including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* The Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Villa Clara,

Mayabeque, Havana, and Artemisa

* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas

* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Ochlockonee River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* West of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,

during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a

depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons

located within these areas should take all necessary actions to

protect life and property from rising water and the potential for

other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other

instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area.

Interests in coastal Georgia and the Carolinas should monitor the

progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area in the United

States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please

monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service

forecast office. For storm information specific to your area

outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by

your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was

located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 81.9 West. Elsa is

moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general

motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a turn toward

the north-northwest on Tuesday and a turn toward the north on

Tuesday night. A north-northeastward motion is expected to begin

on Wednesday. On the forecast track, Elsa is expected to

continue to move over western Cuba for the next few hours,

move into the Florida Straits this evening, and pass near the

Florida Keys early Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or

over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)

with higher gusts. Some restrengthening is forecast after

Elsa moves over the Gulf of Mexico tonight and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)

from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and

on the web at

www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue over portions of

central and western Cuba for the next several hours. Tropical

storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the Florida

Keys beginning tonight and along the Florida west coast beginning

Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread

northward into the Florida Big Bend region within the Tropical

Storm Warning area Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Tropical

storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning

late Tuesday night.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal

tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore

winds within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...2 to 4 ft

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally

dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving

inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following

heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak

surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft

Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to

4 ft

Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft

Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft

Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft

Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge

and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For

information specific to your area, please see products issued by

your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba tonight, rainfall of 5 to 10

inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected.

This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

Across the Cayman Islands tonight, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is

expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and

impacts this week:

Across the Keys into southwest and western portions of the Florida

Peninsula...3 to 5 inches with localized maximum totals up to 8

inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable flash and

urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river

flooding.

Across the rest of Florida into southeast Georgia and the Low

Country of South Carolina...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum

totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in

isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern

Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches

Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated

flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across south Florida tonight

and across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the

southern coast of Cuba tonight. Swells will increase near the

Florida Keys and south Florida tonight and spread northward

along the west coast of Florida tonight through Tuesday night.

Please consult products from your local weather office for more

details.


Sponsored Content

Sponsored Content