Elsa has made landfall...winds still 65mph...she's 137 miles SW of Savannah


ELSA is still headed due north paralleling the West Florida coast with 65 mph winds. She made landfall in Florida and is 137 miles SW of Chatham County. THE RESULT IS A TRACK FARTHER INLAND this morning. Notice the track? It's moved a little westerly and the Georgia and South Carolina coastal counties are no longer in the cone of uncertainty. They are now under a TROPICAL STORM WATCH (not a warning anymore). But we're not in the clear just yet. ELSA, as a tropical storm, will pass between Augusta and Savannah at 2am Thursday morning. That pushes all our timing back several hours. It still means we must be WEATHER ALERT for up to 5" of rain. The timing and location may mean a lesser threat of tornadoes. Potential impacts are 2-4 inches of rain, tropical storm force winds but isolated tornadoes are still possible.

Anticipate the possibility of power outages. Keep your phones charged and batteries in your weather radio!

BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 30

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021

1100 AM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021

...CENTER OF ELSA MAKING LANDFALL IN TAYLOR COUNTY ALONG THE

NORTH FLORIDA GULF COAST...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...29.9N 83.6W

ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM NNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA

ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM WSW OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All warnings south of Aripeka, Florida, have been discontinued.

The hurricane warning along the west coast of Florida has been

changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Storm Surge Watch for the Florida Gulf coast has been

discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward along the

mid-Atlantic coast to Sandy Hook, New Jersey, including the

Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach, the tidal Potomac south

of Cobb Island, and Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* West coast of Florida from Aripeka to the Aucilla River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* West coast of Florida from Aripeka to Ochlockonee River

* Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South

Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Sandy Hook, New

Jersey

* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south

of Cobb Island

* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,

in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,

please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning

Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area.

Interests in southeastern New England and the Canadian Maritimes

should monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was

located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 83.6 West. Elsa is

moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a generally

northward motion is expected to continue through this afternoon. A

turn toward the north-northeast is expected late this afternoon or

tonight, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday.

On the forecast track, Elsa will continue to move inland into

Florida this afternoon. The storm should then move across the

southeastern and mid-Atlantic United States through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher

gusts. Weakening is expected as Elsa moves further inland this

afternoon into tomorrow.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)

from the center. An unofficial weather station at Horseshoe Beach,

Florida recently measured a sustained wind of 62 mph (100 km/h)

gusting to 71 mph (114 km/h). Earlier, a C-MAN station at Cedar

Key, Florida measured a sustained wind of 44 mph (71 km/h) gusting

to 59 mph (95 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and

on the web at

www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue along the Gulf coast

of Florida in the warning area today. Tropical storm conditions are

expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast

by late today or tonight and along the South Carolina coast tonight

and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the

watch area in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states by Thursday

night and Friday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will

cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising

waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the

following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if

the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Aripeka, FL to Aucilla River...2 to 4 ft

Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Aripeka, FL including Tampa Bay...1 to

3 ft

Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...1 to 3 ft

Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge

and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For

information specific to your area, please see products issued by

your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts

and impacts the rest of this week:

Across western and northern portions of the Florida Peninsula...3

to 6 inches with localized maximum storm totals up to 9 inches

today, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding,

along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South

Carolina, 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 6 inches

will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban

flooding.

Across eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3

inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches tonight through Thursday

night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

Across the Northeast and New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated

totals up to 5 inches Thursday into Friday will be possible. This

could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across

northern Florida and southeastern Georgia into eastern South

Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas

and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.

SURF: Swells will continue to affect portions of the west coast of

Florida through today. These swells are likely to cause

life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult

products from your local weather office for more details.


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